Why Your P(doom) Number Needs a Horizon, a Threshold, and a Conditioning Event
What a p(doom) figure needs to specify before boards, insurers, and regulators can use it in a decision.
Token Maxxing vs Outcome Maxxing Is the Wrong Question
How leadership teams can hold a defensible position when executives and investors disagree on measuring AI spend by tokens or by outcomes.
The Pre-Capture Strategy: Why AI Determines Who Owns the Transformation Premium in Family Business Succession
How AI transformation shifts who captures value when a family business is sold, and what a family can do in the years before a sale.
The Silent Downgrade: Why the Model You Licensed in Q1 May Not Be the Model You're Running in Q3
Frontier AI models change after they are licensed, and enterprise contracts and governance tend to assume they do not.
Chokepoint Mapping as a Board-Level Discipline
What a board-level chokepoint inventory covers: the critical dependencies, an owner for each, and a contingency.