AGI: The New Frontier in AI
Last year, I wrote about how AI agents were going to be the hottest thing since pancakes were first served for breakfast in 600 BC in scholarly Greece. From top tech companies to venture capitalists to startups across the globe, AI agents are shaping the future of the industry. But is that the biggest breakthrough we can expect from AI? Probably not. The next big development is quietly taking shape in research labs, universities, private firms, and large corporations. Its name: artificial general intelligence, or AGI, as it’s commonly known.
The big leap toward AGI
Throughout this year, I’ll be breaking down the key aspects of AGI in a series of columns. But for now, let’s cover the essentials so you can begin to answer the question of what AGI is and what it might mean in the years ahead. Just as it’s entirely possible that Pythagoras—somewhere around 490 BC in Greece—enjoyed a few delicious pancakes while solving triangle problems, you too could be doing the same today (and honestly, who can say no to good pancakes?) while trying to make sense of the current AI landscape.
To start, it’s important to know that there’s no broad consensus among tech leaders about what exactly AGI is. In fact, believe it or not, there’s still debate about how to properly define AI itself—even as we see its impact daily in the news, at work, and in our personal lives. So the lack of agreement on a term doesn’t mean there won’t be real progress or impact. It just means academics, researchers, investors, and social media pundits will keep arguing about AGI the same way they currently argue about AI.
For our purposes, we’ll define AGI with a reasonable and conservative description: an AI system capable of performing all human tasks simultaneously, at scale, and with emergent capabilities. Sounds amazing, right? Makes you want one. Yeah, same here.
Is AGI closer than we think?
Right now, there’s plenty of debate around whether AGI will arrive—and when. I’ve got colleagues and friends at some of the world’s top companies, universities, and research institutions. Some of them believe AGI is just around the corner and already showing early signs. Others think it might never come at all. As an AI executive, academic, and researcher, my challenge is to make informed decisions and plan accordingly. So here’s my prediction: I believe we’ll see some form of AGI—at varying stages—by the year 2030. Yep, I said it.
So you might be wondering: “What should I make of an advanced AI system that might (or might not) arrive sometime between now and never?” Fair question. First, when we look at how tech advances tend to unfold, they rarely develop exactly as planned—or on the timeline experts predict (myself included). Right now, we’re seeing tens of billions of dollars being invested in AGI development—directly and indirectly—by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, and a growing list of new players every month.
Companies like Deepseek have managed to replicate OpenAI systems—ones that cost roughly $80 million to train—for about $6 million. That tells us the barriers and costs to entry in the advanced AI space are dropping fast across many key areas. (You can check out my recent article on this.)
At the same time, one of the key advances needed for AI development—whether predictive, generative, or AGI—is progress in quantum computing, quantum-inspired algorithms, and quantum hardware. Quantum AI is already in development, and meaningful breakthroughs are underway. Once quantum hits a few critical milestones, it’ll unlock a whole new era of possibilities—including AGI, and others we’re not even thinking about yet. It’s a fascinating time to be alive.
How to get ready for the AGI era
So, what can you do today to prepare for AGI? Here are four key takeaways:
Breathe. It’s (probably) not arriving tomorrow, so you have time to get familiar with AI, quantum AI, and what AGI might look like in the future.
Stay tuned for upcoming articles I’ll be publishing on quantum technologies, AGI (there’s a lot to cover), and the evolving state of AI.
Start thinking about what your competitive edge will be when AGI finally enters the scene.
Oh—and I forgot to mention: after AGI comes ASI, artificial superintelligence. We’ve got an interesting ride ahead, but don’t worry, you’ll be able to read all about it here.
From where I sit—at the intersection of the private sector, academia, investment, and government—the focus and attention on the potential development of AGI is moving from low to moderate. And climbing. It’s a topic I believe everyone should understand, and it’s exactly what we’ll be exploring throughout 2025 and beyond.
Only time will tell. But just like pancakes and the Pythagorean theorem, who knows how today’s breakthroughs will shape the lives of future generations? The Greeks gave us joy as kids at breakfast—and a bit of grief in school with triangles and Pythagoras. With any luck, AI will help us build a future that’s happier, fairer, and more equitable. But for that, we all need to know what’s happening.
Originally published in Spanish for Fast Company Mexico:
https://fastcompany.mx/2025/02/19/inteligencia-artificial-general-nuevo-horizonte/
