What if uncertainty had three sides?
Do you ever feel like there’s so much happening in the world that you don’t even know where to begin to make sense of it all? From the rise of artificial intelligence to mounting tensions in the Middle East and Eurasia, it feels like almost everything we used to rely on to understand the world… no longer applies. So how do we make sense of it? Can we even make sense of it?
The key isn’t to predict the outcome of a single event (though that helps—and you’ll get a framework for that here), but to understand how the broader global system works: how the major powers are repositioning themselves, and how those moves are shaping our businesses, supply chains, and future decisions. At its core, the question is: how do we build a mental model for navigating uncertainty? How do we generate exceptional insights that put us a step ahead? And how do we protect our interests in the midst of so much change? Only by mastering these broader approaches can we realistically improve how we respond to any one event or strategy.
We’re not all starting from the same place
Let me say this upfront: to get the most out of this, you’ll need to think, reflect, and apply your own judgment—because your situation is (hopefully) different from everyone else’s. You have opportunities, constraints, resources, and especially perspectives that are, in some way, unique to you. And that’s exactly what gives you an edge.
Start by looking at any new development that could reshape how you do business, invest, or design strategy—and sort it into one of two categories: short-term/transient or long-term/expansive. If it’s more temporary and likely to fade with time, you probably don’t need a deep strategic overhaul. Maybe just some targeted adjustments to manage risk or protect profitability—like when a local conflict shakes your market or a surprise competitor enters the space. On the other hand, if the shift seems durable, gaining traction, and likely to stay—like generative AI, artificial general intelligence, quantum computing, or the emergence of a new multipolar order—then it’s worth reassessing your strategy, positioning, and more.
Strategy lives in perspective
Once you’ve sorted the signal, break it down further. Look at what it means for you—both the upside and the downside. In other words: think through both sides of the coin—heads and tails—before searching for the third. Wait… third?
Yes. First, heads. Then tails. So far, so good. But the edge is where it gets interesting. That’s the place where both sides connect—but never touch. The edge is where the biggest returns and the sharpest ideas are found. Think of how many ridges there are on the side of a coin—each one could represent a different angle worth applying.
And most of all: see the world as it is, not as you wish it were. That perspective gives you the flexibility to understand what’s happening outside your preferences or comfort zones. As events evolve, so too must the thinking and plans we built around them. You might even find yourself considering that a coin has three sides—after a lifetime of hearing it only has two.
Uncertainty shrinks when we bring in new perspectives, reframe what we thought we knew, and apply it with intention to what’s unfolding.
So ask yourself: is what you’re facing a short-term situation, or a long-term force that’s gaining ground? In your answer, you’ve just taken the first step toward a clearer strategy.
Originally published in Spanish for Fast Company Mexico:
https://fastcompany.mx/2025/06/30/incertidumbre-tres-caras/
