Geopolitical Swipe: Should Mexico Start Matching with Other Economic Blocs?
Should Mexico start “dating” other economic blocs? Maybe the BRICS? The question comes up more often now that global trade wars are heating up. Clients, students, government officials—and luckily, not yet random strangers on the street—ask what the best move might be in the complex situation Mexico and other Global South countries are navigating. And like in most long-term relationships, the answer isn’t simple.
When Free Love Isn’t So Free Anymore
It’s easy to react on impulse when the other side does something they’ve been hinting at for a while, such as imposing tariffs or renegotiating the terms of the relationship, for example, TMEC. You start thinking about the good times, the promises made, and the economic love that once bloomed. I mean, “Free Trade” even sounds romantic if you think about it.
Feelings like these can make you want to walk away, retaliate, maybe stir up some jealousy—political or economic—in the hopes that the other side realizes what they’ve lost. Tequila? Cars that cost $10,000 less? But as I mentioned in a previous piece on tariffs, they tend to just make the things we buy every day more expensive—not better.
And breaking up might not be the smartest move. While the rest of the Global South might, in theory, have a clearer path into the BRICS (even with its own set of challenges), Mexico would face a tougher road—both short- and long-term. Why? The very reason Mexico has more to gain than most other Global South countries: geography. The U.S. and Mexico are so close, they literally touch. Even if they wanted to break apart, they’d still be connected—through manufacturing, raw materials, agriculture, and more. Can you imagine the protests stretching from L.A. to New York over an avocado toast shortage?
Mexico’s geographic position requires it to think differently than its peers in the Global South as it navigates this new era of great power competition between the United States and China. If Mexico were to lean more heavily toward the BRICS, we’d likely see a spike in tariffs, tougher TMEC renegotiations, and increased economic pressure—at least in the short and medium term.
Geopolitical Swipe: Stay or Explore Other Options?
So does that mean Mexico shouldn’t engage with the BRICS? Not exactly. Remember, this is complicated. Last year, while speaking with Professor Mike Spence—Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2001—we talked about the BRICS and Mexico’s possible membership. It’s a topic we’ve both followed for some time. His view? It’s entirely reasonable: “I don't see any problem with a group of countries getting together to pursue their collective interests as they see it. And especially I don't see there's a problem with that if the two gorillas [the U.S. and China] are having a fight.”
As the world moves from a unipolar structure to a multipolar one, Mexico needs to evaluate its best options for preserving national and economic sovereignty—both now and in the future. And for that, it helps to have more friends.
So where does that leave Mexico? Picture that suspenseful moment in a rom-com—dramatic lighting, emotional close-up—where the character asks, “Do I stay or do I go?” In this case, maybe the right move is to stay… but go ahead and download that geopolitical dating app. That country with all the foreign direct investment? Looks like it has a great profile. Swipe right, please.
Originally published in Spanish for Fast Company Mexico:
https://fastcompany.mx/2025/03/26/swipe-geopolitico-mexico-salir-otros-bloques-economicos/
