Penguins Under Embargo
A war? Yes—but without the uniforms
It goes without saying that we’ve entered a new era of economic competition—one that’s a far cry from the international disagreements of the past over the global economy. Today, we’re in the midst of a Third World War that’s truly global, unfolding 24/7 through customs agents, hedge funds, monetary authorities, executive orders, and consumers adjusting their buying habits to the new normal.
You might be wondering, “Wait—there’s a world war happening and I didn’t hear about it?” It’s not that you missed it; it just looks very different from the large-scale conflicts we’re used to. When we think of war, we picture tanks, fighter jets, explosions—and yes, casualties. And while that kind of conflict still exists, what we’re seeing now is the First World Economic War. It was effectively declared last week against every economy on the planet—including the Heard and McDonald Islands, home—possibly—to renegade penguins who might be cutting secret deals with world powers to lower their costs. This could be the first time in history a bird has been targeted by economic sanctions. Then again, guano was a massive industry for nearly a century—which helps explain why so many countries have laid claim to remote islands over the years.
Penguins, trade deals, and other 21st-century oddities
If you look at the issues that have long divided nations and societies—both internationally and domestically—economics is always near the top of the list. The way we trade reflects how we feel treated. If your boss pays you more, you feel valued. If they decide to pay you less, it feels like the opposite. The same goes for countries. Surpluses (or deficits), tariffs, trade barriers, and free trade agreements—all of it shapes how governments and their citizens feel on the world stage.
Economics has been one of the core weapons of war for millennia. The difference now is that the scale is global. That’s why we’re literally seeing tariffs imposed on penguins—to limit their economic power in the marketplace. You might be wondering—like millions of others—how penguins ended up on a sanctions list. Was it a mistake? Did AI generate the list? Or was it something else? It’s actually an extreme attempt to eliminate as many legal gray areas as possible when applying tariffs. The technical term is “jurisdictional arbitrage”—when companies or countries strike deals in other jurisdictions to sidestep tariffs or sanctions.
Economics is (geo)political
I bring all of this up because it’s crucial to understand what’s unfolding—as it happens, or even better, before it happens (especially if you’ve been reading my columns). Knowing what happened after the fact is far less useful than knowing ahead of time. Like having the answers to an exam—but after the exam is over. What matters now is understanding how economic tools are being used as weapons around the world—and realizing that we’re all potential targets in this new era of geopolitical and geoeconomic conflict.
So what should you be thinking about for the year ahead? No, taking a vacation until 2026 isn’t a viable option.
Just keep this in mind: if a penguin can show up on the radar during an economic war, so can you—your country, your company.
At a time when more and more businesses operate globally, it’s critical to factor in these vulnerabilities as you plan for future growth.
Nothing lasts forever—and this economic conflict will eventually end in some form of settlement. What matters most is thinking long-term.
Last week, I was in the boardroom of the Mexican stock exchange, the very day the latest round of tariffs was announced. My perspective then—and now—is that over the long run, there are more tailwinds than headwinds for economies like the U.S., China, Mexico, and others across the Global South in the years ahead. But to benefit from those conditions, you have to think long-term, invest with foresight, and understand your unique position on both the local and global stage. Remember: you can’t win any game from the sidelines.
Originally published in Spanish for Fast Company Mexico:
https://fastcompany.mx/2025/04/10/pinguinos-bajo-embargo-aranceles-guerra-economica/
