The Arctic in Play: Greenland, Canada, and the Ice-Cold Competition for Power

A few weeks ago, I wrote about how tariffs are now affecting just about everything—and everyone—from major powers to remote islands inhabited by penguins. As the world shifts toward a multipolar order, many regions that once barely registered in the minds of citizens or governments are now front and center. Case in point: Greenland… or even the (very unlikely) idea that Canada could become the 51st state of the United States.

From the Arctic, with love… and eyes on what lies beneath

So what’s behind this sudden interest in remote, uninhabited, ice-covered lands where bears and foxes far outnumber people—and yes, where penguins somehow ended up on the latest U.S. tariff list? No, there’s no “Penguin Doctrine” that elevated them to the level of national security. But the places where they slide across the ice as if no one were watching are now in the crosshairs of global powers like Russia, China, and the United States.

As ironic as it sounds, the Arctic is now the hottest spot in geopolitics, trade, and military competition. Why, if even the best intentions freeze over up there? It’s cold, inhospitable, and you won’t find many bakeries or cafés in the vicinity. And isn’t the region frozen solid most of the year anyway? Not anymore—and that’s why it’s suddenly a focal point.

Today’s global chessboard revolves around four key pillars of strategic advantage: artificial intelligence, rare earths, trade routes, and national security. We could name more, of course, but those four are enough to explain why a frozen landscape is now prime real estate.

The Silk Road… Polar Edition

You might be wondering—fair enough—what any of this has to do with the place where Santa and his elves should be busy wrapping presents. The answer lies in climate change and the polar thaw, which is progressing faster than at any other point in recorded history. How much faster? About four times faster than the rest of the planet. With rising temperatures comes less ice—and with less ice, the Arctic is opening up as a new arena of competition for strategic minerals, trade routes, and military control.

Like the surface of the moon, the Arctic technically belongs to no one. As it becomes more accessible, more countries want to claim their share—both above and below the surface. Beneath the sea, vast reserves of rare earth elements are believed to exist—critical for manufacturing advanced semiconductors, the engines behind the AI industries of China and the United States. Given that China controls most of the world’s rare earth reserves, it’s no surprise that the U.S. is moving quickly to secure alternate sources.

But the strategic realignment isn’t just happening underground. On the surface, new trade routes are beginning to form between continents. Right now, the United States finds itself at a disadvantage compared to Russia and China, whose alliances have secured a strong Arctic presence. China, for example, aims to build an “Arctic Silk Road” to complement its existing land and sea corridors, positioning itself as a “near-Arctic” power. The U.S., by contrast, has only 10 Arctic bases (Russia has 32), mostly in Alaska and one in Greenland. A quick look at the map makes it clear: if Canada and Greenland were to side with the U.S., the entire polar power balance would tilt dramatically. That said, I seriously doubt Canada is angling to become the 51st state.

As you can see, the race to lead in AI, establish dominance over trade routes, and navigate a multipolar future has put the Arctic—and its honorary penguins—squarely in the spotlight. Even Greenland, long overlooked, is reemerging as a strategic asset for more than one global power.

While Santa’s still warming up, you could be making moves

You know what other region is starting to stand out on this same board? Latin America—especially Mexico—as the next zone of interest for these same three powers.

Remember: if Santa’s home can be reshaped by the pressures of technological, geopolitical, and climate shifts… so can yours. Which means it’s worth asking: are you where you need to be to turn that change into a real advantage?

Originally published in Spanish for Fast Company Mexico:
https://fastcompany.mx/2025/05/27/artico-juego-groenlandia-canada-potencias-hielo/